Global growth will slow because the working age population in some of the key centres for economic activity is falling, say Barclays.
However, Barclays' Michael Gavin also highlighted in a research note this week about how women are replacing men economically and this is a good thing.
In some cases, like in Japan, Barclays said that by having more women and old people entering the workforce, it is helping mitigate some of the economic damage from dwindling labour market participation from men:
The working age population of the
existing centers of global economic activity has stopped rising and
begun to fall. All else equal (including in particular productivity
growth and labor force participation), the implied slowdown in the
global labor force could subtract a full
percentage point from trend
growth in the coming decade and a half, compared with the past 15 years.
But the effect of shrinking (and aging)
populations on the global workforce could be mitigated by labor force
participation of workers beyond the conventional working age (15-64) and
by increased participation rates of the working age population. In the
past decade, precisely this has happened in Japan and Germany,
substantially mitigating the demographic shock.
Take a look at these charts. Effectively, more women of the "prime
working age" bracket are joining the labour market, while more men in
this category are leaving it. This in turn is helping stop the
"demographic shock" that Barclays is talking about:
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