Against the odds, Prime Minister David Cameron has
won a suprising victory in the British general election. His
Conservative party managed to gain 326 seats in parliament, enough to
win a narrow majority in government.
With Cameron returning to 10 Downing Street for a second term, here's what to expect from his government over the next few years.
Read also:David Cameron gets second term in huge party win; Uk Election
Here's Barclays' note on Friday:
The Conservatives will also be passing a bill to ban income tax, national insurance and VAT increases in the life of the parliament (until 2020).
Chancellor George Osborne might have actually wanted a coalition in these circumstances, making it easier to ditch policies like welfare cuts that are popular, but hard to actually find. Here's how the Tory plans look against those of the other parties:
There might have been a bit of restraint in the most pricey parts of the housing market, with the expectation that some version of the tax might come in.
It's now almost certain not to. Here's HSBC again:
With Cameron returning to 10 Downing Street for a second term, here's what to expect from his government over the next few years.
With a majority, David Cameron would almost certainly legislate for a referendum on the UK's membership of the European Union — something that the Labour party and Lib Dems were against. They'd initially proposed having the vote in 2017, but there have also been suggestions that it should be pushed earlier.
Read also:David Cameron gets second term in huge party win; Uk Election
Here's Barclays' note on Friday:
Markets will also have to process the
holding of an in/out EU referendum by 2017, an event that is likely to
generate a substantial amount of uncertainty, particularly if polls fail
to show more substantial support for EU membership in the coming weeks
and months. As such, initial short-term cheer could be followed by a
medium-term downside chill.
What's more, with the Scottish National Party (SNP) storming home and
winning almost every seat in the country, the pro-independence movement
will get a new lease of life — but likely no influence at all in
the government at Westminster. It's quite possible that the SNP will
try to use this result as a springboard for another referendum.More cuts, in uncertain places and with few tax hikes
The Conservative fiscal plans are tighter than the other parties' were — with fewer increases in tax and more departmental spending cuts. Here's HSBC's note on the results:
Over the next five years, the
Conservatives are planning substantial fiscal tightening: according to
the Institute for Fiscal Studies’ (IFS) analysis, the party’s stated
aims are consistent with a reduction in borrowing equal to 5.2% of GDP
by 2020. The IFS estimate that, under the Conservative’s, public
spending could be around GBP45bn (in today’s prices) lower by 2020 than
it might have been under Labour.
However, while the Conservatives’
manifesto plans were the most stringent, they were not particularly
detailed. The party has said that it wants to implement GBP30bn worth of
tightening by 2018/19: GBP12bn in welfare spending cuts, GBP13bn in
departmental spending cuts and GBP5bn in savings from clamping down on
tax avoidance / evasion.
HSBCThe Conservatives will also be passing a bill to ban income tax, national insurance and VAT increases in the life of the parliament (until 2020).
Chancellor George Osborne might have actually wanted a coalition in these circumstances, making it easier to ditch policies like welfare cuts that are popular, but hard to actually find. Here's how the Tory plans look against those of the other parties:
No Mansion Tax
Both the Liberal Democrats and Labour favoured some sort of higher taxes on particularly expensive properties — the impact of which would have been most keenly felt in London.There might have been a bit of restraint in the most pricey parts of the housing market, with the expectation that some version of the tax might come in.
It's now almost certain not to. Here's HSBC again:
However, markets will also have to
process the holding of an in/out EU referendum by 2017, an event that is
likely to generate a substantial amount of uncertainty, particularly if
polls fail to show more substantial support for EU membership in the
coming weeks and months. As such, initial short-term cheer could be
followed by a medium-term downside chill.
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